MPLX 3Q16 Earnings Conference Call Presentation

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The slide deck used during the quarterly earnings call for MPLX, owner of MarkWest Energy. Of particular interest are slides 4, 6 and 8 highlighting the Marcellus/Utica region.
Transcript
  • 1. Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call Presentation October 27, 2016
  • 2. Forward‐Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws regarding MPLX LP (“MPLX”) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (“MPC”).These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, expectations, estimates and projections concerning the business and operations of MPLX and MPC, including proposed strategic initiatives. You can identify forward-looking statements by words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “design,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goal,” "guidance," “imply,” “intend,” “objective,” “opportunity,” “outlook,” "plan,“ “position,” “pursue,” “prospective,” “predict,” “project,” "potential," “seek,” “strategy,” “target,” “could,” “may,” “should,” “would,” “will” or other similar expressions that convey the uncertainty of future events or outcomes. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond the companies’ control and are difficult to predict. Factors that could cause MPLX's actual results to differ materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements include: negative capital market conditions, including a persistence or increase of the current yield on common units, which is higher than historical yields, adversely affecting MPLX’s ability to meet its distribution growth guidance; risk that the synergies from the acquisition of MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. (“MarkWest”) by MPLX may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected; disruption from the MPLX/MarkWest merger making it more difficult to maintain relationships with customers, employees or suppliers; risks relating to any unforeseen liabilities of MarkWest; the time, costs and ability to obtain regulatory or other approvals and consents and otherwise consummate the strategic initiatives discussed herein and other proposed transactions; the satisfaction or waiver of conditions in the agreements governing the strategic initiatives discussed herein and other proposed transactions; our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives related to the strategic initiatives discussed herein and other proposed transactions; adverse changes in laws including with respect to tax and regulatory matters; inability to agree with respect to the timing of and value attributed to assets identified for dropdown; the adequacy of MPLX's capital resources and liquidity, including, but not limited to, availability of sufficient cash flow to pay distributions, and the ability to successfully execute its business plans and growth strategy; the timing and extent of changes in commodity prices and demand for crude oil, refined products, feedstocks or other hydrocarbon-based products; continued/further volatility in and/or degradation of market and industry conditions; changes to the expected construction costs and timing of projects; completion of midstream infrastructure by competitors; disruptions due to equipment interruption or failure, including electrical shortages and power grid failures; the suspension, reduction or termination of MPC's obligations under MPLX's commercial agreements; modifications to earnings and distribution growth objectives; the level of support from MPC, including dropdowns, alternative financing arrangements, taking equity units, and other methods of sponsor support, as a result of the capital allocation needs of the enterprise as a whole and its ability to provide support on commercially reasonable terms; compliance with federal and state environmental, economic, health and safety, energy and other policies and regulations and/or enforcement actions initiated thereunder; changes to MPLX's capital budget; other risk factors inherent to MPLX’s industry; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" in MPLX's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2015, and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2016, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Factors that could cause MPC’s actual results to differ materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements include: the time, costs and ability to obtain regulatory or other approvals and consents and otherwise consummate the strategic initiatives discussed herein; the satisfaction or waiver of conditions in the agreements governing the strategic initiatives discussed herein; our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives related to the strategic initiatives discussed herein; adverse changes in laws including with respect to tax and regulatory matters; inability to agree with the MPLX conflicts committee with respect to the timing of and value attributed to assets identified for dropdown; risks described above relating to MPLX and the MPLX/MarkWest merger; changes to the expected construction costs and timing of projects; continued/further volatility in and/or degradation of market and industry conditions; the availability and pricing of crude oil and other feedstocks; slower growth in domestic and Canadian crude supply; the effects of the lifting of the U.S. crude oil export ban; completion of pipeline capacity to areas outside the U.S. Midwest; consumer demand for refined products; transportation logistics; the reliability of processing units and other equipment; MPC’s ability to successfully implement growth opportunities; modifications to MPLX earnings and distribution growth objectives; compliance with federal and state environmental, economic, health and safety, energy and other policies and regulations, including the cost of compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard, and/or enforcement actions initiated thereunder; changes to MPC’s capital budget; other risk factors inherent to MPC’s industry; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" in MPC's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2015, filed with the SEC. In addition, the forward-looking statements included herein could be affected by general domestic and international economic and political conditions. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed here, in MPLX's Form 10-K or Form 10-Q or in MPC's Form 10-K could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Copies of MPLX's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q are available on the SEC website, MPLX's website at http://ir.mplx.com or by contacting MPLX's Investor Relations office. Copies of MPC's Form 10-K are available on the SEC website, MPC's website at http://ir.marathonpetroleum.com or by contacting MPC's Investor Relations office. Non-GAAP Financial Measures Adjusted EBITDA, distributable cash flow (DCF) and distribution coverage ratio are non-GAAP financial measures provided in this presentation. Adjusted EBITDA and DCF reconciliations to the nearest GAAP financial measure are included in the Appendix to this presentation and in our third-quarter 2016 earnings release, which is on our website at http://ir.mplx.com. Distribution coverage ratio is the ratio of DCF attributable to GP and LP unitholders to total GP and LP distributions declared. Adjusted EBITDA, DCF and distribution coverage ratio are not defined by GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to net income attributable to MPLX, net cash provided by operating activities or other financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. 2
  • 3. Highlights  Strategic initiatives announced by MPC support MPLX’s distribution growth  Reported strong results on higher volumes in the Northeast and Southwest – Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $375 million – Distributable cash flow of $301 million – Distribution coverage ratio of 1.22x  Declared distribution of $0.515 per common unit for the third quarter 2016, a 10 percent increase over third-quarter 2015  Affirmed 2016 distribution growth guidance of 12 to 15 percent; forecast 2017 distribution growth rate of 12 to 15 percent and a double-digit distribution growth rate for 2018 3
  • 4. Logistics & Storage Segment 4  Commenced operations of Cornerstone Pipeline, on schedule and under budget  Continued construction of the Hopedale pipeline connection, with in-service expected by year-end  Continued construction of Utica build-out, with completion expected mid-2017
  • 5. Gathering & Processing Segment 5 Southwest Operations 2016:  Processed volumes expected to increase ~15% over prior year  Gathered volumes expected to increase ~2% over prior year 2017:  Processed volumes expected to increase ~3% to ~8% over prior year – West Texas (Delaware Basin) and Western Oklahoma (STACK) to support majority of increase  Gathered volumes expected to be flat over prior year (a)Based on weighted average number of days plant(s) in service. Excludes periods of maintenance (b)West Texas is comprised of the Hidalgo plant in the Delaware Basin (c)Processing capacity includes Partnership’s portion of Centrahoma JV and excludes volumes sent to third parties Processed Volumes Area Available Capacity (MMcf/d)(a) Average Volume (MMcf/d) Utilization (%) West Texas(b) 200 168 84% East Texas 600 514 86% Western OK 425 346 81% Southeast OK(c) 120 120 100% Gulf Coast 142 105 74% 3Q 2016 Total 1,487 1,253 84% 2Q 2016 Total 1,383 1,092 79%
  • 6. Gathering & Processing Segment 6 Marcellus & Utica Operations 2016:  Processed volumes expected to increase ~15% over prior year  Gathered volumes expected to increase ~20% over prior year 2017:  Processed volumes expected to increase ~10% to ~15% over prior year  Gathered volumes expected to be flat over prior year (a)Based on weighted average number of days plant(s) in service. Excludes periods of maintenance Processed Volumes Area Available Capacity (MMcf/d)(a) Average Volume (MMcf/d) Utilization (%) Marcellus 4,155 3,273 79% Houston 555 467 84% Majorsville 1,070 778 73% Mobley 920 701 76% Sherwood 1,200 1,069 89% Keystone 410 258 63% Utica 1,325 1,050 79% Cadiz 525 487 93% Seneca 800 563 70% 3Q 2016 Total 5,480 4,323 79% 2Q 2016 Total 5,215 4,106 79%
  • 7. Gathering & Processing Segment 7 Marcellus & Utica Fractionation  2016 fractionated volumes expected to increase ~30% over prior year  2017 fractionated volumes expected to increase ~15% to ~20% over prior year Fractionated Volumes Area Available Capacity (MBbl/d)(a) Average Volume (MBbl/d) Utilization (%) 3Q16 Total C3+ 227 189 84% 3Q16 Total C2 190 126 66% 2Q16 Total C3+ 227 176 78% 2Q16 Total C2 182 116 64% (a)Based on weighted average number of days plant(s) in service. Excludes periods of maintenance
  • 8. 36% 7% 25% 32% Marcellus Utica Southwest Logistics & Storage Organic Capital Investment  2016 organic growth capital forecast of $1.1 B to $1.2 B  2017 organic growth capital forecast of $1.2 B to $1.6 B – Gathering & Processing capital includes infrastructure to support Northeast and Southwest operations – Logistics & Storage capital includes Utica pipeline build-out, Robinson butane cavern and expansion of storage capacity 8 2016 Organic Capital Investment
  • 9. 66 375 0 100 200 300 400 3Q 2015 3Q 2016 $MM Adjusted EBITDA(a) 3Q 2016 Financial Highlights 9 (a)Reflects the results of MarkWest from the date of the merger, December 4, 2015. 54 301 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 3Q 2015 3Q 2016 $MM Distributable Cash Flow(a) Operating Income by Segment ($MM) Three Months Ended Sept. 30 2015 2016 Logistics and Storage 81 124 Gathering and Processing - 293
  • 10. Adjusted EBITDA 10 3Q 2016 vs. 3Q 2015 Variance Analysis 66 5 32 267 5 375 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 3Q 2015 Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to MPLX L&S Marine Business MarkWest Other 3Q 2016 Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to MPLX $MM
  • 11. MPLX has Strong Financial Flexibility to Manage and Grow Asset Base 11 ($MM except ratio data) As of 9/30/16 Cash and cash equivalents 208 Total assets 16,415 Total debt 4,412 Redeemable preferred units 1,000 Total equity 10,154 Consolidated total debt to LTM pro forma adjusted EBITDA ratio(a) 3.5x Remaining capacity available under $2.0 B revolving credit agreement 1,997 Remaining capacity available under $500 MM credit agreement with MPC 500 (a)Calculated using face value total debt and last twelve month pro forma Adjusted EBITDA, which is pro forma for acquisitions and excludes impairments. Face value total debt includes approximately $439 MM of unamortized discount and approximately $7 MM of unamortized debt issuance costs as of September 30, 2016.
  • 12. Commodity Price Sensitivities  90% fee-based net operating margin, 10% commodity exposed for 2017  Maintain active hedging program and have currently hedged ~50% of our remaining 2016 commodity exposure; currently hedged ~25% for 2017  Annual 2017 sensitivities to commodity price changes (assumes no hedges): 12 NOTE: Net Operating Margin is calculated as segment revenue less segment purchased product costs less realized derivative gains (losses). (a)The composition is based on MPLX’s average projected barrel of approximately: Ethane: 35%, Propane: 35%, Iso-Butane: 6%, Normal Butane: 12%, Natural Gasoline: 12%. Product Commodity Price Change Annual DCF Impact Natural Gas Liquids (Mont Belvieu) $.05 per weighted average gallon(a) ~$18 MM Crude Oil (WTI) $1 per barrel ~$1 MM Natural Gas (Henry Hub) $.50 per MMbtu <$1 MM
  • 13. Forecast  12-15% distribution growth in 2017; double-digit distribution growth in 2018  Affirmed 2016 Forecast: 13 Financial Measure 2016 Forecast Net Income(a) $140 million - $240 million Adjusted EBITDA(b) $1.3 billion - $1.4 billion Net cash provided by operating activities $1.1 billion - $1.2 billion Distributable Cash Flow(b) $1.0 billion - $1.1 billion Distribution Growth Rate(c) 12% - 15% Organic Growth Capital Expenditures(d) $1.1 billion - $1.2 billion (a)Guidance includes impairment charges of $89 MM related to an equity method investment and $130 MM related to goodwill established in connection with the MarkWest merger. (b)Non-GAAP measure calculated before the distribution to preferred units and excluding impairment charges related to an equity method investment and goodwill. See reconciliation in appendix. (c)Full year distribution growth rate. (d)Excludes non-affiliated JV members' share of capital expenditures.
  • 14. 14 Appendix
  • 15. Growth Capital Forecast 15 2017 forecast $1.2 B - $1.6 B (a)Utica Rich-Gas Gathering is a joint venture between MarkWest Utica EMG’s and Summit Midstream LLC. Dry-Gas Gathering in the Utica Shale is completed through a joint venture with MarkWest and EMG (b)MarkWest and MarkWest Utica EMG shared fractionation capacity (c)MarkWest Utica EMG Joint Venture Gathering & Processing Projects Shale Resource Capacity Est. Completion Date Rich- and Dry-Gas Gathering (a) Marcellus and Utica N/A Ongoing Western Oklahoma - STACK Rich-Gas and Oil Gathering Cana Woodford N/A Ongoing Hopedale III C3+ Fractionation and NGL logistics(b) Marcellus and Utica 60,000 Bbl/d 1Q17 Sherwood VII Processing Plant Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 2Q17 Keystone C2 Fractionation Marcellus 20,000 Bbl/d 3Q17 Sherwood VIII Processing Plant Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 4Q17 Majorsville II C2 Fractionation Marcellus 40,000 Bbl/d 4Q17 NGL Pipeline Expansions Marcellus N/A 2017 and 2018 Majorsville VII Processing Plant Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 2018 Harmon Creek Processing Plant Marcellus 200 MMcf/d 2018 Harmon Creek C2 Fractionation Marcellus 20,000 Bbl/d 2018 Cadiz IV Processing Plant (c) Utica 200 MMcf/d 2018 Logistics & Storage Projects Est. Completion Date Utica Infrastructure Build-out Mid-2017 Robinson Butane Cavern 2018 Texas City Tank Farm 2018
  • 16. Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow Reconciliation from Net Income 16 (a) The adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash-flow adjustments related to the Predecessor of the inland marine business are excluded from the adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX and distributable cash-flow attributable to MPLX prior to the March 31, 2016 acquisition. (b) MarkWest pre-merger EBITDA and undistributed distributable cash flow from Oct. 1, 2015 through Dec. 3, 2015 (c) In the third quarter of 2015, we revised adjusted EBITDA to exclude acquisition costs and unrealized (gain) loss on commodity hedges on a prospective basis ($MM) 2013 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 Net income (loss) 211 239 68 76 63 42 (37) 20 143 Plus: Depreciation and amortization 70 75 19 20 19 58 132 137 138 Provision (benefit) for income taxes 1 1 - - - 1 (4) (8) - Amortization of deferred financing costs - - - - - 4 11 12 11 Non-cash equity-based compensation 1 2 1 - 2 1 2 4 3 Impairment expense - - - - - - 129 1 - Net interest and other financial costs 1 5 6 6 5 27 57 52 53 Equity investment income (loss) - - - - - (3) (5) 83 (6) Distributions from unconsolidated subsidiaries - - - - - 15 38 40 33 Unrealized (gain) loss on commodity hedges - - - - - (4) 9 12 2 Acquisition costs - - - - 4 26 1 (2) - Adjusted EBITDA 284 322 94 102 93 167 333 351 377 Less: Adjusted EBITDA attributable to noncontrolling interests 86 69 - 1 - - 1 - 2 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Predecessor(a) 87 87 30 31 27 31 30 - - Plus: MarkWest’s pre-merger EBITDA(b) - - - - - 146 - - - Adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX LP(c) 111 166 64 70 66 282 302 351 375 Plus: Current period cash received/deferred revenue for committed volume deficiencies 19 31 12 10 11 11 10 11 10 Less: Net interest and other financial costs 2 6 6 6 5 19 57 52 53 Gain of disposal of assets - - - - - - - - 1 Equity investment capital expenditures paid - - - - - (14) (28) (10) - Current portion of income taxes - - - - - - - - 4 Investment in unconsolidated affiliates - - - - - 14 29 10 - Maintenance capital expenditures paid 19 22 4 4 8 15 12 16 20 Volume deficiency credits recognized 2 34 10 9 10 9 7 9 9 Adjustments attributable to Predecessor(a) (7) (2) - (1) - - (1) - - Other - - - - - 7 - - (3) Distributable cash flow pre-MarkWest undistributed 114 137 56 62 54 243 236 285 301 MarkWest undistributed DCF(b) - - - - - (16) - - - Distributable cash flow attributable to MPLX LP 114 137 56 62 54 227 236 285 301 Less: Preferred unit distributions - - - - - - - 9 16 Distributable cash flow available to GP and LP unitholders 114 137 56 62 54 227 236 276 285
  • 17. Segment Operating Income Reconciliation to Income From Operations 17 ($MM) 3Q 2015 3Q 2016 L&S segment operating income attributable to MPLX 81 124 G&P segment operating income attributable to MPLX(a) - 293 Segment portion attributable to equity affiliates - (41) Segment portion attributable to Predecessor(b) 31 - Income from equity method investments - 6 Other income – related parties - 11 Unrealized derivative loss - (2) Depreciation and amortization (19) (138) General and administrative expenses (25) (46) Income from operations 68 207 (a)All Partnership-operated, non-wholly owned subsidiaries are treated as if they are consolidated. (b)The operating income of the Predecessor of the inland marine business is excluded from segment operating income attributable to MPLX LP prior to the March 31, 2016, acquisition.
  • 18. 2016 Forecast - Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash-Flow Reconciliation from Net Income 18 ($MM) Low High Net income 140 240 Plus: Depreciation and amortization 540 540 Impairment expense(a) 130 130 Net interest and other financial costs 220 220 Adjustment for equity investment earnings & distributions(b) 215 215 Other 58 58 Adjusted EBITDA 1,303 1,403 Less: Adjusted EBITDA attributable to noncontrolling interests 3 3 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX LP 1,300 1,400 Less: Net interest and other
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