Cooperations on climate change in the Carpathian region

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Presentació per part de Sandor Szalai (Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.
  • 1. Cooperations on climate change in the Carpathian region Sandor Szalai
  • 2. Location
  • 3. National adaptation strategies in the region (DAS, 2012)
  • 4. Adaptation activities of the Carpathian Convention
  • 5. Environmental pathway of vulnerability and adaptation Jacques Delsalle, Evdokia Achilleos, DG Environment, Unit D1 – Protection of Water Resources Climate Change Ecosystem conditions and supporting services Impact on Ecosystem services Provisioning (Food, Freshwater, Wood/fiber, Fuel) Regulating (Climate, Flood, Diseases, Water purification) Cultural Economic impacts Infrastructures and physical capital (Damages, Losses) Production and Consumption (Processes, consumer behaviour, Growth potential, Variability/disruptions activity) Employment Floods Water scarcity droughts Species phenology Water quality Forest fires Soil degradation Species distribution Permafrost/ice melting Social Impacts Health (Mortality, Morbidity, Labour productivity) Distributive impacts (Social groups, Regions) Resource conflicts Migrations Social fabric Governance Greenhouse gases concentration Temperature (means & extremes) Precipitation (means & extremes) Sea level rise Anthropogenic Pressures Land-use changes Resource-intensive Production/consumption Demographic changes Adaptive Capacity Cultural Capacity, Technological Capacity, Financial Capacity, Gouvernance Portfolio Adaptation Measures Grey Green Soft Tools Knowledge Base Indicators Monitoring
  • 6. Preparatory actions • Three projects: – Climate of the Carpathian region – Integrated assessment of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures (Service contract CARPIVIA) – In-depth assessment of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures (Framework contract CarpathCC)
  • 7. CARPATCLIM results • High-resolution (10 km*10 km) freely available databases • Data availability on monthly and daily level • Time frame: 1961-2010
  • 8. Temperature and precipitation averages (Lakatos et al., 2013)
  • 9. Temperature changes, 1961-2010 (Lakatos et al.,
  • 10. (Lakatos et al., 2013)
  • 11. Seasonal temperature changes, 1961-20 (Lakatos et al., 2013)
  • 12. Change of the annual precipitation sum 1961-2010
  • 13. Change of the seasonal precipitation sums 1961-2010
  • 14. Change in the number of wet days 1961-2010
  • 15. Change in the number of days with precipitation above 20 mm, 1961-2010
  • 16. Change in the maximum daily precipitation sum, 1961-2010
  • 17. Seasonal temperature change for 2021-2050 compared to 1961-1990 Spring Summer Autumn Winter
  • 18. Winter Seasonal temperature change for 2071- 2100 compared to 1961-1990 Autumn Summer Spring
  • 19. Winter Autumn Summer Spring Yearly Seasonal and yearly precipitation change for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990
  • 20. IPCC, 2007
  • 21. CARPIVIA Tasks and Outcomes: • Integrated assessment & discussion of key of vulnerabilities & adaptation measures, including cost-benefit analysis and policy recommendations • Data inventory & knowledge gap analysis (->framework proj) • Web-supported information system • Stakeholder consultation and cooperation with Carpathian Convention CARPIVIA runs until 2013. Partners: Alterra Wageningen UR with ECNC, ECORYS, Grontmij and WWF-DCP CARPIVIA project Werner, 2012
  • 22. CarpathCC framework project
  • 23. The Carpathian Region
  • 24. In-depth study on the key climate change threats and impacts on water resources • Produce maps for projected floods, droughts and changes snow cover • Assess projected seasonal shift in water balance and impacts on soils • Assess the potential impacts of climate change on the implementation of the water framework directive and flood directive • Assess the risk of landslides in relation to changing precipitation patterns and flash floods • Impact of changes in ecosystems and adaptation measures on water resources
  • 25. In-depth study on the impacts of climate change threats on ecosystems • Assessing the effect of pests and pathogens on the Carpathian forests; climate change-induced increase in virulence; change in distributional and outbreak ranges, and change in populations dynamics of both resident and newly-emerging forest pests and pathogens will be addressed; • Assessing the effect of climate change on protective function of montane and subalpine forests in the Carpathians; • Evaluating the effect of management practices on forest vulnerability to climate change, including expected adaptation potential of forest management; • Evaluating the anticipated changes in species composition of forests, wetlands and grasslands, including climate change effect on grasslands productivity
  • 26. In-depth study on the impact of climate change on ecosystem based production systems • Positive and negative climate impacts on ecosystem services with specific reference to multifunctional landscapes and grasslands • Assessment of the vulnerability of the tourism sector
  • 27. In-depth study on adaptation measures • Ex post evaluation of adaptation measures • Supporting costs and benefits studies • Ecological networks and ecosystem fragmentation • Assessing and tailoring adaptation measures for the Carpathian region • Agri-environmental schemes and other farmer support
  • 28. Supporting stakeholder interaction • series of stakeholder workshops will be organised and managed using knowledge-based facilitation techniques in order to generate: a) a number of action scenarios in relation to the impacts of climate change, based on key impacts and assessments of vulnerability; b) generate a number of adaptation options in relation to these scenarios; c) evaluate the costs and benefits of the options along with their feasibility; and d) identify preferred options and adaptation pathways
  • 29. Integral vulnerability assessments in focal areas • Tatra mountain, including Zakopane • Rodnei and Maramures • Tarnava Mare area • Irongate national park and foothills • Bükk mountains
  • 30. Climate Change adaptation WG at Carpathian Convention • Decision COP3/15 on Climate change of the COP 3 of the Carpathian Convention: a Working Group on Adaptation to Climate Change under the Carpathian Convention has been established
  • 31. Strategic Agenda of Adaptation of the Carpathian Convention (CARPIVIA, 2012, not accepted yet) • Background: Climate Change in the Carpathians , and What does Adaptation Mean? • The Issues: Impacts of Climate Change in the Carpathians • Priorities for the Signatories: Policy Responses to create a Path to a Climate-Proofed Carpathian Economy • Carpathian Space: Naturally Adapting to Changes in the Heart of Europe • Improving the Information Base and Monitoring • Coordination with the Danube, Tisza, Dniester processes • Cross-Cutting Opportunities • Opportunity for the EU Funds from 2014-2020: Steer the Region’s Development Towards a Climate-Proofed Carpathian Space • Actions
  • 32. Conclusions • High spatial variability of the changes • The models may have problems with the description of tendencies of some basic climate elements • Strong capacity building is requested • Establishment/improvement of monitoring and early warning systems • Further research is needed, but on a more coordinated way
  • 33. Conclusions • The observations have to be involve in the adaptation measures • Strenghten the adaptation research
  • 34. Acknowledgement • Author thanks to European Comission for CarpathCC, which is supported by the EU DG ENV Contract no ENV.D.1/FRA/2011/0006
  • 35. Thank you for your attention!
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